Iran has surpassed Egypt in total wheat imports for the current grain year, which runs until the end of June, according to the latest report by the Financial Times on global wheat trade. The shift is largely due to the drought that has recently hit Iran’s agricultural sector, prompting the government to take precautionary measures to secure its wheat reserves and ensure food security. What is particularly striking is that the gap has been filled through direct imports from the United States, marking the first significant trade exchange between the two countries in 26 years. US government observers expect Iran’s wheat imports to reach 8.5 million tonnes this year, giving it a 6.5% share of global wheat trade.
This year has seen a rise in global wheat exports, particularly from EU-27 and FSU-12 producers, driven by increased demand in the Middle East. Iran alone has increased its imports by half a million tonnes, followed by Egypt with an increase of 0.4 million tonnes, Tunisia with 0.3 million tonnes, and Libya and Turkey each importing an additional 0.2 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Egypt continues to grapple with a complex wheat trade battle between Russia and the United States—one that has extended beyond grain to target local Egyptian produce. The war of competing interests has drawn in everything from weevils and worms to fruit flies, further fuelling conspiracy theories about economic sabotage.
Following an increase in government subsidies for wheat to EGP 15 billion and a sharp decline in demand for US wheat—down to 25% from 60% of total imports after last year’s bread crisis and rising global prices—Egypt’s government has shifted towards diversifying its wheat sources, with Russia emerging as the dominant supplier in this strategic realignment. Egypt’s domestic wheat production stands at 3 million tonnes, cultivated across 3.1 million feddans, covering roughly 40% of national consumption. However, the safety of these imports has come under scrutiny, with reports of Russian wheat shipments being infested with weevils, worms, and toxic grains. The issue has sparked a media frenzy in both Egypt and Russia, drawing further attention when CNN dedicated a special report to the controversy, especially after Egyptian foreign minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit’s recent visit to Moscow, where the wheat issue topped the agenda.
In Egypt, media outlets have amplified speculation of a high-stakes trade war between importers of Russian wheat and their counterparts dealing in US wheat. Calls for stricter health inspections on wheat shipments have grown louder, leading Egypt’s public prosecutor, Abdel Meguid Mahmoud, to form a tripartite committee from Cairo University’s Faculty of Agriculture to collect samples from the impounded wheat shipments and submit a final report. Meanwhile, the Russian government has maintained a measured diplomatic stance, urging Cairo to avoid politicising the issue. However, tensions escalated when Russia halted a 168-tonne shipment of Egyptian oranges bound for Russian markets, citing contamination with fruit flies—an act widely perceived as retaliatory.
Against this backdrop, Egyptian political circles are once again debating the feasibility of a national self-sufficiency programme for wheat, an idea championed by opposition and independent groups, most notably the Kefaya movement, which insists that Egypt could achieve self-sufficiency if the political will existed. A study by Hans Lofgren, a specialist in Middle Eastern economies, titled Reforming Egypt’s Wheat Policy, advised the government to focus on agricultural development research. ‘Government investment in developing higher-yield wheat varieties would not only boost productivity and increase farmers’ incomes, but also help secure supplies for subsidised bread and flour programmes without the need for further subsidy increases,’ Lofgren argued. However, Dr Abdel Salam Gomaa, known as Abu al-Qamh (the Father of Wheat), is far less optimistic about Egypt’s ability to achieve self-sufficiency. He points to local consumption patterns, the fact that livestock and poultry consume 12% of Egypt’s subsidised wheat, and the near-impossibility of expanding wheat cultivation to 5 million feddans. Ultimately, Egypt’s slide to second place behind Iran as the world’s largest wheat importer has less to do with any real shift in its wheat policy and more to do with Iran’s temporary crisis caused by drought—alongside Egypt’s ongoing struggle to break free from its dependence on foreign food supplies.
This article is originally published by AlBorsa in Arabic and later AI-translated by South Push.