Arab and Egyptian press have recently rekindled heated political debates surrounding the sixth annual conference of the National Democratic Party (NDP), scheduled to take place over three days from 31 October to 2 November. The government appears to be diverting attention from political concerns by leaking contentious economic proposals, including plans to privatise 40 public companies, revive last year’s Popular Stocks project, and other promises.
For the sixth consecutive year, local, regional, and even international press have treated the NDP’s annual conference as an engaging topic that a wide audience relishes debating.
Mr. Gamal Mubarak has consistently been the central figure, receiving effusive praise from the official press while enduring harsh criticism from the independent press. The rationale is evident: he is being strongly, though ‘indirectly,’ positioned as the only viable successor to President Hosni Mubarak.
The independent press has been particularly vocal this year, and their criticisms of the younger Mubarak intensified throughout October, culminating just before the conference, which President Mubarak himself opened on the 31st.
Gamal often commands attention from both the official and independent press, who either highlight his achievements or focus on his party’s failures. The NDP has held power for nearly three decades, and this longevity has fuelled much of the scrutiny.
This year, the pressure on the government has been immense, prompting them to clarify that the party would not announce its candidate for Egypt’s 2011 presidential elections at this conference. This cautious, ‘prudent’ move was likely aimed at diffusing the intensifying criticism heard in the public domain.
Everything Is Fine
Mr. Ahmed Nazif, the Prime Minister of Egypt, contributed to the discourse during an interview at the Euromoney conference last month. He dismissed speculation that a presidential candidate would be announced at the NDP conference, stating, ‘It is still too early.’
He also took the opportunity to deliver an economic message aimed at addressing concerns tied to the succession issue. ‘My message to investors is that stability has always been an important issue for this country. This stability will continue, and the authority will be transferred in a constitutional manner. There’s nothing else to predict in this issue,’ Nazif said.
Several officials, including ministers and prominent politicians such as Dr. Mofeed Shehab and Mr. Safwat El Sherif, reiterated this message at various events, as frequently reported by Al-Akhbar, an official newspaper.
The Americans also made their position known, articulated by the US Ambassador to Cairo, Mrs. Margaret Scobey, during a roundtable discussion held at her residence, attended by invited press reporters. The independent Egyptian newspaper Al-Dostor quoted her as saying, ‘The US insists that the decision on this issue remains an Egyptian decision one hundred per cent.’
She also reportedly added, according to Al-Dostor, ‘The US is ready, as it has been in the past, to provide technical and training support regarding elections, if requested to do so.’
Yelling Is Also Fine
The flurry of official announcements failed to pacify the opposition or dampen the heated debate, particularly in its early stages. Al Jazeera.net, an Arab independent news portal, closely tracked the movements and alliances of the opposition as they responded to this highly charged political issue. The portal reported the formation of a new alliance called The National Campaign Against Inheritance (Ded Eltawreeth).
The campaign is spearheaded by Mr. Ayman Nour, leader of the Al-Ghad Party, who was recently released from prison. Other political parties and movements that do not necessarily share Nour’s vision have also joined the alliance, including the Muslim Brotherhood, Labour, Al-Karama, Kefaya, and others, along with political and legal activists.
However, political analyst Diaa Rashwan criticised the alliance in comments to Al Jazeera.net, stating, ‘This alliance is expected to fail for the same reasons that caused previous alliances to collapse: the absence of a clear programme or mechanisms for implementation. Moreover, Ayman Nour does not represent a centrist figure capable of uniting political forces, as he is an active participant in the political game.’
In a parallel move, the 6th of April opposition movement – a youth-led online initiative – announced the launch of its own national conference to coincide with the NDP’s event, also running for three days. According to Al-Youm Al-Sabea, an Egyptian independent newspaper, the alternative conference was titled The Intruders’ Class (Al-Fe’a Al-Mondassa) and promised to discuss nearly every contentious issue tied to Egypt’s political, economic, and social challenges.
Dropping the Economic Card
The NDP government has proven adept at maintaining power for nearly three decades, despite widespread dissatisfaction among Egyptians. They know what to say and when to say it. Following their cautious approach to the Gamal succession issue, they took another step aimed at reshaping their image and redirecting criticism towards economic controversies.
Gamal himself became involved in the announcements. In a preparatory gathering for the conference, El-Akhbar quoted him as saying, ‘The conference’s political papers are covering a wide range of topics of interest to citizens, including employment, investments, agriculture, irrigation, housing, education, health, energy, development, addiction among the young, and women’s empowerment.’
A flashy news item was leaked to Al-Youm Al-Sabea by a senior NDP source, revealing that top party leaders had instructed the Ministry of Investment to urgently prepare a new study on the Popular Stocks project. The study would outline the project’s basic features and implementation plan. According to the source, this study was to be conducted under ‘top secrecy’ and presented to the party’s policies committee ahead of the conference.
This project had previously been announced during the fifth NDP conference a year earlier, but it faced significant public rejection due to its ambiguity and lack of a clear implementation strategy. The initiative aimed to distribute stock shares of publicly traded companies to citizens for free, but it was never put into action.
Another attention-grabbing announcement came from Mr. Amin Abaza, the Minister of Agriculture, who stated that he would present five proposals concerning government agricultural policies during the conference. Abaza explained, ‘The agricultural policies paper includes five axes aimed at advancing agricultural development: conditional incentives for small farmers, integration between industrial and agricultural production, developing cattle and poultry resources, achieving integrated rural development, and improving irrigation for old farms in the Nile Delta and Valley.’
Dr. Mahmoud Mohieldin, the Minister of Investment, also made headlines when he convened a meeting with the NDP’s economic committee two weeks before the conference. The meeting focused on a project to privatise forty companies through initial public offerings (IPOs), allowing citizens to purchase the shares.
Although there wasn’t enough time to include this project in the conference discussions, leaking the news was a calculated move. It reignited heated debates over privatisation, a contentious issue in any country, and particularly in Egypt, where transparency is often lacking.
A New but Foggy Roadmap
The opposition remains vocal but has yet to persuade the largely passive public with any concrete plans—assuming they have any. Nevertheless, it is arguably a positive sign that the government feels compelled to offer something new and adopt smarter tactics, as the otherwise stagnant political scene shows faint signs of becoming dynamic.
While the opposition could not be silenced, the government successfully diverted significant media attention away from them with strategic economic news leaks. This manoeuvre, though not necessarily deceptive, appears calculated. However, past experiences with the NDP’s annual conferences suggest these events rarely produce tangible or lasting outcomes.
Regardless of whether the conference takes place, Egypt has fared relatively well in weathering the global economic crisis. International stakeholders and global organisations have acknowledged the country’s commendable economic performance, which achieved a 4.7% GDP growth rate at a time when many other economies are contracting. However, the rhetoric of this year’s conference remains largely unchanged, with the same familiar faces taking centre stage.
Optimism might seem warranted this time, as the government appears eager to capitalise on the ‘lucky’ economic wave to paint a brighter picture across the media. Yet in Egypt, what plays out in the media often stays in the media. The people, who should be the main protagonists of this unfolding drama, remain largely absent, spoken for rather than speaking.
The government has skilfully leveraged relatively strong economic performance to bolster its political agenda and used other contentious issues as distractions. These efforts function as an economic airbag, softening the anticipated blow from the opposition. However, to the average Egyptian, this airbag is little more than a bag of hot air, offering no promise for a better future.
Another version of this article is published by Business Today Egypt.